Čistá a celková volební volatilita v Česku v letech 1990-2013: stejný koncept, odlišná měření a podobné závěry?

The aim of the paper is to analyze electoral volatility in the Czech Republic during the years
1990-2013; and to evaluate whether during that period electoral volatility decreased, increased
or was stable. The paper distinguishes between net and overall/gross volatility. The
first one uses aggregate level data from the electoral results and measures the changes in
the support of the political parties in consecutive elections. The second one uses individual
level data from post-election surveys and measures the overall party switching between
political parties. This division allows to compare both types of electoral volatility and to evaluate
their biases. Moreover, the study decomposes the electoral volatility into within-system
and extra-system volatility and into block and within-block volatility. Whereas electoral
volatility had been decreasing since the middle of 90’s, the 2010 and 2013 elections marked
a significant increase in electoral volatility. This volatility stemmed from the support for new
parties and party switching within the blocks of left-wing and nonleft-wing parties.